#558: Why Your Retirement Math Might Be All Wrong — If You Follow the 4% Rule

What happens when you spend three decades talking to retirement experts? You learn that most of what people think they know about retirement planning is oversimplified or wrong.

Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar, joins us on the Afford Anything podcast to share what she’s discovered after 31 years of interviewing experts across personal finance, tax planning, and Social Security.

One key insight: The standard advice about withdrawing 4 percent of your portfolio annually in retirement misses the mark. Real-life spending isn’t that simple. In your 60s, you might spend more on travel. By your 80s, healthcare costs often rise.

Benz suggests creating separate “pots” of money for different purposes – like a travel fund you aim to deplete within your first decade of retirement.

Want to protect against market crashes early in retirement? Benz recommends keeping 5-8 years of planned withdrawals in cash and high-quality bonds. This prevents having to sell stocks during downturns.

We talk about why retirement doesn’t need to be all-or-nothing. Instead of going from 40 hours to zero, Benz describes how many people benefit from a phased approach. This might mean keeping the parts of your job you enjoy while dropping the rest, or finding new ways to use your skills.

The conversation shifts to housing choices. While many assume retirees move to Florida or Arizona, the data shows most stay put. Those who do move often end up near their oldest daughter. And while single-family homes tend to make people happier until around age 75, apartment dwellers report more satisfaction after that — largely due to increased social interaction.

Benz shares her own retirement planning process. Despite being a retirement expert herself, she works with an hourly financial planner who tells her she’ll likely struggle to spend as much as she could in retirement. It’s a common problem — after decades of saving habits, many retirees find it psychologically difficult to spend their money.

The interview wraps up with a discussion about relationships in retirement. Research shows that while older adults often have smaller social circles, these relationships tend to be deeper and more meaningful. They’ve pruned away the “good enough” friendships to focus on their closest connections.

Benz’s insights come from her new book “How to Retire” and her work at Morningstar, where she creates free model portfolios and hosts The Long View podcast. Beyond the financial aspects, she emphasizes that successful retirement planning involves thinking about purpose, relationships, and how you want to spend your days — not just your money.

Timestamps:

Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.

0:00 What 30 years of retirement expert interviews reveal

1:34 Why spending in retirement is harder than saving for it

3:12 Beyond money: need purpose, not just leisure

4:00 The challenge: planning for an unknown time horizon

8:52 Should market fears delay your retirement?

13:42 How much cash and bonds to keep safe

15:49 When bonds don’t protect against stock crashes

18:33 Phased retirement: keep what you love, drop what you don’t

29:24 Take mini-retirements throughout your career

33:20 Spending shifts: from travel to healthcare costs

46:14 Why most retirees don’t actually move

57:31 After 75, apartment living beats houses

1:00:42 Friendship patterns change: quality over quantity

1:04:58 Virtual vs real-life connections

1:06:25 Where to find more info

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Source: Afford Anything