#588: First Friday: The Economic Maze We’re Navigating Together

Credit: Chris Guillebeau

Jobs are growing, interest rates are holding, and your student loan options just hit pause. Welcome to this month’s economic rollercoaster.

The economy is sending mixed messages this month. We added 151,000 new jobs in February, slightly better than January’s 143,000. But unemployment ticked up to 4.1 percent.

Health care is booming (52,000 new jobs). Restaurants and bars? They’re hurting (lost 27,500 jobs). Federal government shed 10,000 positions while state and local governments added 21,000.

The Fed isn’t making any sudden moves. They’ll likely hold interest rates steady at 4.25 – 4.5 percent when they meet March 18-19. Fed Chair Powell made this clear: “We do not need to be in a hurry and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is working a different angle. He’s targeting 10-year Treasury yields instead of pressuring the Fed on short-term rates. His strategy? Use fiscal and regulatory reforms to convince markets that inflation will be controlled long-term.

Energy costs are a key part of his plan. Bessent believes lowering gas and heating oil prices does double duty: saves consumers money and boosts economic confidence. This matters because consumer spending is 70 percent of our economy.

Speaking of confidence – it’s plummeting. February saw the largest monthly decline in consumer sentiment since August 2021. People across all age groups and income levels are increasingly pessimistic. They expect inflation to hit 6 percent in the coming year (significantly higher than current rates).

Got federal student loans? Applications for income-driven repayment plans are temporarily on hold. This affects all plans, even the older ones not being challenged in court.

The pause came after a federal appeals court expanded a suspension of the SAVE plan. About 8 million borrowers had enrolled in this program, with more than 400,000 having their debts erased. If you’re working toward Public Service Loan Forgiveness, this is particularly important since income-driven plans are a key requirement.

In crypto news, bipartisan legislation for stablecoins is moving forward. The Senate has the GENIUS Act while the House has the STABLE Act (yes, that spells “stable genius”).

These bills would establish clear rules about who can create stablecoins and require them to be fully backed by high-quality assets like U.S. dollars or Treasury bills. They would also officially classify stablecoins as payment instruments rather than securities – a significant regulatory distinction.

The housing market? It varies dramatically by location. In DC, some zip codes are seeing prices climb rapidly while others face steep declines. The lesson: real estate is hyper-local. Success comes from becoming an expert in just a couple of specific zip codes rather than trying to understand entire metropolitan markets.

As Fed Chair Powell wisely put it, the key is “separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves.” That’s solid advice for navigating our current economic landscape.

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Episode Mentioned:
Afford Anything Episode 564, The Real Story Behind Those Economic Tariffs
https://affordanything.com/564-the-real-story-behind-these-new-tariffs/

Sources:
Bloomberg, Circle’s Stablecoin Regains Market Cap Lost From Crypto Collapse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/circle-s-stablecoin-regains-market-cap-lost-from-crypto-collapse?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Covington, Seven Things to Know About the Federal Stablecoin Bill, the GENIUS Act
https://www.cov.com/en/news-and-insights/insights/2025/02/seven-things-to-know-about-the-federal-stablecoin-bill-the-genius-act

CNBC, Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/powell-says-fed-is-awaiting-greater-clarity-on-trump-policies-before-making-next-move-on-rates.html

Wall Street Journal, Trump Picks Brian Quintenz to Be CFTC Chairman
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-picks-brian-quintenz-to-be-cftc-chairman-3e23352d

NY Times, S.E.C. Moves to Scale Back Its Crypto Enforcement Efforts
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/business/sec-crypto-task-force.html

NYTimes, Student Loan Borrowers Blocked From Affordable Repayment Plans
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/business/student-loan-repayment-plans.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Washington Post, Some student loan repayment plans have been suspended. Here’s what to know.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/03/04/student-loan-repayment-plans-suspended-education-department/

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Source: Afford Anything

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